Theft and robbery trends of bicycles in São Paulo and their longitudinal relationship with cycling

Background: The occurrence of thefts and robberies in neighborhoods may deter individuals from bicycling and being physically active.
Purpose: To describe time series of thefts and robberies of bicycles in the city of São Paulo and the relationships with longitudinal transport bicycling.
Methods: ISA, Physical Activity and Environment study (São Paulo, SP, Brazil). Bicycling for transportation was assessed when the participants (n=1,272) answered the study questionnaire in 2014/2015 (baseline) and 2020/2021 (follow-up). Thefts and robberies of
bicycles around the participants address (network buffer of 1,500 m) were obtained for the years 2015 to 2019. The time series 2015-2019 of thefts and robberies was analyzed using Prais-Winsten test. The coefficients of the annual trends were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the time series.
Results: Participants (45.0±19.5 yo) were mostly female (58.8%). The yearly prevalence of thefts and robberies of bicycles for each bicycling scenario over time was ‘cycling in both waves’: 2015=11.1%; 2016=22.2%; 2017=44.4%; 2018=55.6%; 2019=55.6%; ‘cycling
only at baseline’: 2015=20.7%; 2016=37.7%; 2017=56.6%; 2018=41.5%; 2019=41.5%; ‘cycling only at follow-up’: 2015=10.5%; 2016=36.8%; 2017=52.6%; 2018=44.7%; 2019=50.0%; ‘no cycling’: 2015=19.3%; 2016=32.8%; 2017=51.9%; 2018=50.3%;
2019=44.5%. There was no difference in AAPC between the four bicycling scenarios; however, in all of them AAPC showed a significant upward trend for thefts/robberies: ‘cycling in both’ AAPC=24.5% (95%CI:19.6%_29.7%;p<0.01), ‘cycling only at baseline’
AAPC=36.7% (95%CI:21.6%_53.7%;p=0.003), ‘cycling only at follow-up’ AAPC=28.6% (95%CI:16.9%_41.5%;p=0.004), and ‘no cycling’ AAPC=26.8% (95%CI:24.7%_28.9%;p<0.01). In all regions where participants lived, theft/robbery increased, with the AAPC being higher in the Southern region compared to the Northern region: Midwest AAPC=25.7% (95%CI:17.2%_34.9%;p=0.002); East AAPC=28.0% (95%CI:18.0%_38.9%;p=0.002); South AAPC=38.7% (95%CI:34.1%_43.6%;p<0.01); Southeast AAPC=19.4% (95%CI:2.4%_39.1%;p=0.035); North AAPC=30.5% (95%CI:27.4%_33.7%;p<0.01).
Conclusions: An increase in thefts/robberies of bicycles over time was observed, and
further investigations are required to assess the impact on bicycling in São Paulo.
Funding: CAPES; FAPESP: 2017/17049-3; CNPq: 309301/2020-3.